Natural gas exports from Russia to Europe used to account for more than 50% of Russia’s total exports. In 2018, exports to Europe were 3.03 million tones, compared to 17.23 million tones in 2019 and 16.13 million tones in 2020, a more than fivefold increase.
Russia and EU
The cold weather that hit Europe and the ongoing transition from oil and coal-fired power generation to natural gas, as a decarbonisation measure seemed to be the main factors.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, EU’s energy policy has changed quite oppsite. Once best partner of Russia the EU, regarding Russia as a harmful exporter. On March 26, approximately a month after the invasion began, the EU agreed with the US to expand LNG supply.
The United States had been waiting for this moment. To break the tie between EU and Russia. Europe may be the biggest victim of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
By swallowing US threats and strategies, Europe decided to exit from numerous energy networks they have built with Russia, going thrown away, with 60 years old history.
What did you want? Berlin has not been able to preserve Russian gas, which is vital for its citizens and the industrial and economic complex, has missed the opportunity to maintain the pace of economic growth, and is obediently watching the emigration of its industries and companies to the United States – if only Washington is pleased.
The US manipulates EU to stop export from Russia and offered to its own LNG. An accelerated Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU fall by over 75% compared to 2021.
Russia will be moreover restricted its export flows unilaterally, as it has done already in 2022 to certain countries.
gas market report executive-summary – iea
US Natural Gas Export to EU
Who has advantages from the divorce of Russia – EU is the US.
Before the Ukraine invasion, United State was struggling huge trade deficit. US shale gas and shale oil, which is worth over 100 billions, is an important earner as a way of increasing export value.
EU Natural gas import (2021-2023)
In 2023, the US was the largest LNG supplier to the EU, representing almost 50% of total LNG imports. Imports from the US almost tripled LNG export to EU during 2021 to 2023.
EU Natural gas import from the US (2021-2023)
Here is a simple explanation of why the US never let Ukraine negotiate with Russia. The United States needed a good reason to impose sanctions. They wanted to intimidate the EU’s fragile energy situation and then take advantage of a big importer, the EU.
In 2023, the US become the largest LNG supplier to the EU, representing almost 50% of total LNG imports. Imports from the US almost tripled from 2021 to 2023.
Sanctions helped United State become top exporter of Natural Gas.
If the EU continues to choose US LNG supplies, it will face higher costs due to shipping and the need for new infrastructure. While reducing dependency on Russia, it still leaves the EU reliant on other countries.”
Europe’s growth had been consisted on a stable affordable Russian gas. So it could be a shortcut to establish own energy source by renewable, if EU would choose Russian gas during the transition.
Without Russian gas, EU is likely going to suffer for sometime by its own choice.
Natural Gas CIA data (2021 Archive data for 2017)
U.S., EU strike LNG deal as Europe seeks to cut Russian gas – Reuters
The Biden’s Influence Peddling Timeline – Oversight committee
