Abundantly blessed Russian natural gas had flourished beautifully, widely in European continent through Eurasia continent by pipeline.
Gas pipeline gave Russia a huge economical prosperities. The United States could not endure any longer. It seems only a matter of time, Russia soon to become most influential supplier. It had to be stopped completely before it is too late.
From the US point of view, the most urgent thing to stop was Nord Stream 2.
Existence of Nord Stream 2 threaten the US more than anything. Nord Stream 2 is a symbol, that expresses Russia’s power and also the desirable liaison between Russia and the EU. The US had to break them apart.
So finally, all the pieces of the puzzle ultimately fit together. That could be core point, what is a cause of the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
Contents
Russia-EU Gas Pipeline Development
The gas pipeline project in Russia has gradually began in early 1960. In January 1980, the scale of the projects was immense, came up with the Soviet Union and various European banks. Along with participations from prominent American manufacturers, including Ford and General Electric.
Russia-EU Gas Pipeline
At the beginning, bitter controversies and discouragement arose from the US government side. That was turning point of Atlantic Alliance policies on the East – West trade. the Western European countries were impressed by the Soviet negotiation. Simply Europe wanted to buy affordable gas, and to sell their equipment through the project.
The construction has made attractive opportunities toward not only Europe or the Soviets, but also United States and other countries, like Japan and Australia.
It is one of the largest gas pipeline in the history.
To import the equipment of pipeline, Deutshe Bank proposed $5.2 billion export credit pakage to the Soviets. The Credit Lyonnais of France offered $3.3billion, Belgian banks $1 billion, Japanse Eximbank $3 billion.
Connecting numerous pipeline between Europe and Russia had consisted with mutual interest and stability. Both side were bargaining their resources at each other. The partnership of energy export and manufacture import had kept more than 60 years. Until the war of Russia – Ukraine broke out.
The East – West Gas Pipeline Deal 1980-1984
Nord Stream 2 with Germany
Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipeline under the sea. That runs from Luga Bay in Russia to Lubmin in Germany. It has capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, equal to more than 50 % of Germany’s annual gas consumption.
First one, Nord Stream was already implemented 2015, started supplying to Western Europe in 2018. The construction of the Nord Stream 2 was completed in 2021.
But it has never activated.
The completion of Nord Stream 2 was interrupted by several sanctions and the assertion of that Russia might weaponize to the EU or Ukraine. That statement came from the U.S side.
“Our idea is and remains that Ukraine remains a transit country for natural gas, that Ukraine, just as any other country in the world, has the right to territorial sovereignty,”
If Nord Stream 2 supplys the gas to EU continent, that can be game changer of energy fields. At the other hand, the relationship between the U.S. and Europe was shrinking compared to that of Russia and Europe.
Biden – Merkel agreement
As having several severe debates between Washington and Berlin, Nord Stream 2 had been almost completed to work in July 2021. It costs $ 11 billion huge pipeline, faced a firm disagreement from Biden administrations.
Angela Merkel, who supported the project agreed the term to Biden. To cease the project, if Russia used gas pipeline as weapon. That was her last meeting with Washington before she would step down her position.
Together with the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, it was assumed that the majority of Europe’s gas demand could be met.
It has been since 1920, Germany and Russia ( the Soviets) had nutured relationship in particular way. Their economical tie was growing positive way. But unfortunately at the same time, their strong tie was a dangerous signal to the United States.
To connect gas pipeline directly Germany and Russia, supposed carrying enough gas to Europe swiftly at affordable cost. That was ready to active.
But Nord Stream 2 was terminated, under the name of sanction, because the US didn’t like the idea.
Nord Stream 2 is just the example of how the United State keep its position, to be influential top player at the global stage.
Meanwhile, following the US intervention in Nord Stream 2, Russia began to embrace a new sense of urgency concerning of its future natural gas development. Measures were taken to ensure its continuation. This led to the invasion of Ukraine.
Nord Stream 2 niemal gotowy – wprost
biden-merkel-agree-russia-cannot-use-CNBC
Nord Stream 2 divides Germany’s allies – GIS
Natural Gas through Ukraine
The hugely webbed Russian gas pipeline, Ukraine stands important transmission point. To supply Russian gas into Europe, gas had to run through Ukraine.
To connect Russia and Europe by gas pipeline has two ways. Baltic Straits subsea pipeline Nord streams and Ukrainian route. If Nord Stream 2 can not be operated, it is necessary to take Ukraine route, but problems arises here.
Using Ukrainian route, Russia meets a serious obstacle. There have been numerous significant disagreements between Russia and Ukraine regarding the transit of natural gas through Ukrainian territory. The conflict in 2022 is not the first time, they have been engaged in several disputes for many years.
That is why Russia constructed the Nord Stream circumventing Ukraine at first place.
The intention was made facilitating the direct transportation of natural gas to Europe without Ukraine.
Why it needed to circumvent Ukraine? Let’s explore it.
Conflict Russia and Ukraine over gas pipeline
Before Nord Stream 1, almost 80% of natural gas for Europe was shipped through Ukraine. That the revenue was almost 3% of Ukraine’s GDP, was expected to bring in around $2-3 billion a year.
Ukraine was also a importer of Russian gas. Ukraine used these transit fees to pay for it. But Ukraine often caused troubles by anti-Russian stance or extracting gas from pipelines without Russia’s permission.
2005: Orange Revolution Dispute
It was in 2005, that Russia and Ukraine had a first major dispute over a gas pipeline, at the time of Orange Revolution.
The term “Orange Revolution” refers to the inauguration of a new Ukrainian government with a full of anti-Russian and pro-Western stance.
In response to enmity toward Russia, the Ukrainian government was asked to raise the price of Russian gas from $50 (per 1,000 m3) to $160. This was not weaponizing, was just the consequence of anti-Russian activity in Ukraine.
At the peak, gas prices rose to $230. After two years of conflict, the situation was settled by a middleman between Russia and Ukraine and ended a $95 contract.
Since the Orange Revolution, anti-Russian ideology has gradually become stronger in Ukraine. That occasion possibly gave the idea of Nord Stream.
2008: Gas Extraction Dispute
Romania, Hungary and Poland said pressure in their pipelines had started to fall because of the dispute. Romania’s state-controlled pipeline operator, Transgaz, said gas imports had dropped by up to 40% from normal levels.
by The Gurdian
In 2008, Russia accused Ukraine of stealing millions of dollars’ worth of gas. The dispute has led to reduced fuel supplies in some European countries. Gazprom cut natural gas deliveries to Ukraine on January 1, due to unpaid bills and prices for this year’s supplies.
Moscow and Kiev have promised that flows through the same pipeline network to European consumers including Britain will not be disrupted.
A solution was reached by Russia suspending gas supplies to Ukraine, introducing a system of monitoring the pipeline by EU monitoring company.
Occationally: Unpaid Gas payment Dispute
Another dispute happened in June 2014. Russia turned off the gas supply to Ukraine. After that Ukraine had failed to pay off its debts, estimated at $5.3billion (£3.3bn; 4.2bn euros) by Russian state-run giant Gazprom. Gazprom had sought a repayment of $1.95bn.
The failed payment from Ukraine had occurred in 2006, and 2008-09. These disputes led to gas shortages elsewhere in Eastern Europe, meaning hardship for many ordinary citizens in mid-winter.
Through those troubles, as a result, Nord Stream 1 and additional line Nord Stream 2 was constructed. To secure pipeline route without Ukraine.
To addition, conquering Crimea in 2014 was also to be considered securing the route of Russian gas to secure the route.
Russia has no choice but invade
Seemingly Russia had to take action due to deffend its natural gas industries.
Firstly, frequent troubles with Ukraine gave the idea of Nord Stream.
Secondaly, apparently the problem was solved by Nord Stream though, The US intervention made its operation vulnerable. Thirdly, in the reality, there was even potential termination of Nord Stream.
Then what to do?
Expecting that Russia is going to be in the crisis of natural gas industries in the near future. Only the way to avoid the crisis is to conquire the Ukrainian gas route partialy under Russia’s control, not Ukraina. So Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a economical strategic movement aimed at ensuring the country’s survival rather than greedly enhancing possesion.
Unless oil and gas are primaly resources for Russia. Preserving its industries are crucial. Russia has any other choice to invade or a huge deficit in the Russian economy.
Russian Gas and US – Ukraine coalition
Furthermore the another gas development is on the verge. The multi-rational gas pipelines are expanding on various continent from Russia.
Russian gas network in Europe
The pipeline spreads toward China, India, Turkey, Syria, Algeria. And Morocco is on its way. Even Japan has pipeline with Russia.
Transporting gas directly by pipeline offers significant advantages for both exporters and importers. To secure large quantities of gas in a short time and to reduce transportation costs.
Russia’s geographical proximity to Europe and the Middle East provides a convenient route for the deployment of Russian natural gas. To regard the future development, this is contingent to have a secure transit in Ukraine.
Therefore Russia had to achieve by its all effort. Such Russia’s move, on the other hand, ignite the caution of US or Ukraine. It fostered collaborative environment, allowing them to work closely together.
Ukraine would not give to Russia any profit of natural gas without Ukranian transit. Who is eager to take full control on its territory, or let Russia out. Then the United State has the reason to driving Russia out of enrgy competition. They are just on the same boat. Why don’t work together to kick Russia out of Ukraine.
The Biden Administration offers the favorable support to Ukraine, with tremendous amount of funds and weapons. Ukraine, of course welcomed the involvement of the US, nurturing anti-Russian party to establish their goal.
So This is how started Russia-Ukraine war. It is the formula of the proxy war between United Stated and Russia over natural gas. If Russia were to lose the transit in Ukraine, not only to Europe but also the Middle East and Africa would be some troubles in the future.
It could be a fatal blow to Russia’s position who relies on heavily natural gas exports. Russia’s future depends on how to conquer a secure transit in Ukraine.
Russia was forced defending its resources to survive. Because of the intervention of the Biden administration, because of the anti-Russian movement in Ukraine. The invasion in Ukraine was caused by US-Ukraine interest, the coalition plot.
